Below is the stated numbers for 2011, 2012, 2013, and then my forecasts for 2014 to 2016. There are plenty of estimates which are discussed in my blog posts under the label "CCP Financials". My inputs are in yellow.
Numbers are in thousands.
| Profit & Loss Account | ||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014F | 2015F | 2016F | |
| Subscription Sales - Eve Online | 63,167.1 | 64,137.0 | 71,732.7 | 67,521.9 | 70,897.9 | 74,442.8 |
| change y-o-y or h-o-h | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11.8% | -5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Subscription Sales - Eve Online: China | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1,851.7 | 4,901.9 | 5,392.1 | 5,931.3 |
| change y-o-y or h-o-h | 164.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | |||
| Subscription Sales - Dust | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Subscription Sales - Other games | 156.3 | 300.0 | 600.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Other revenue | 1,940.8 | 859.5 | 2,537.6 | 1,440.8 | 1,440.8 | 1,440.8 |
| Total Revenue | 65,264.2 | 65,296.5 | 76,722.0 | 73,864.6 | 77,730.8 | 81,814.9 |
| change | 10.2% | 0.0% | 17.5% | -3.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% |
| Cost of sales | -5,605.4 | -4,824.8 | -6,875.9 | -6,410.1 | -6,762.6 | -7,117.9 |
| Gross Profits | 59,658.7 | 60,471.8 | 69,846.1 | 67,454.5 | 70,968.3 | 74,697.0 |
| Gross Profit Margin | 91.4% | 92.6% | 91.0% | 91.3% | 91.3% | 91.3% |
| R&D | -12,972.5 | -16,513.7 | -35,094.6 | -29,947.4 | -23,319.3 | -24,544.5 |
| % of sales | 19.9% | 25.3% | 45.7% | 40.5% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Publishing | -11,313.7 | -9,604.4 | -9,052.9 | -9,162.1 | -9,638.6 | -10,145.1 |
| % of sales | 17.3% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% |
| Marketing | -9,912.3 | -12,567.3 | -14,879.4 | -13,883.8 | -14,613.4 | -15,381.2 |
| % of sales | 15.2% | 19.2% | 19.4% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| G&A | -17,635.9 | -18,968.8 | -18,772.2 | -18,254.4 | -19,199.5 | -20,208.3 |
| % of sales | 27.0% | 29.1% | 24.5% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% |
| change | 4.2% | 7.6% | -1.0% | -2.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% |
| Total operating expenses | -51,834.4 | -57,654.2 | -77,799.0 | -71,247.8 | -66,770.8 | -70,279.0 |
| Operating Profits | 7,824.3 | 2,817.6 | -7,952.9 | -3,793.2 | 4,197.5 | 4,418.0 |
| Operating profit margin | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Items written off | -21,483.3 | -23,975.3 | ||||
| Financial Income | 40.1 | 412.7 | 1,240.7 | 945.1 | 56.8 | 28.9 |
| Financial Cost | -1,306.6 | -1,867.6 | -2,899.9 | -2,921.2 | -2,921.2 | -2,921.2 |
| FX difference | -75.0 | 2,554.2 | 679.7 | 337.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| PBT | 6,482.8 | 3,916.9 | -30,415.7 | -29,407.0 | 1,333.1 | 1,525.7 |
| Income Tax | 2,189.7 | 796.2 | 9,067.7 | 6,230.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| PAT | 8,672.5 | 4,713.1 | -21,348.1 | -23,176.7 | 1,333.1 | 1,525.7 |
| FX | 144.8 | -115.6 | 0.6 | -80.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 8,817.3 | 4,597.6 | -21,347.5 | -23,257.4 | 1,333.1 | 1,525.7 | |
| EBTIDA | 18,179.9 | 16,439.7 | 19,804.7 | 13,787.2 | 13,297.5 | 13,518.0 |
| margin | 27.9% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 18.7% | 17.1% | 16.5% |
| change | 21.5% | -9.6% | 20.5% | -30.4% | 195.0% | 45.8% |
| Balance Sheet | ||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014F | 2015F | 2016F | |
| ASSETS | ||||||
| Non Current Assets | ||||||
| Property, plant & equipment | 5,426.5 | 5,572.8 | 4,286.3 | 2,386.8 | 1,986.8 | 1,586.8 |
| Goodwill | 4,253.0 | 4,253.0 | 4,253.0 | 4,253.0 | 4,253.0 | 4,253.0 |
| Development cost | 74,768.6 | 88,011.6 | 67,339.8 | 43,103.4 | 50,412.8 | 57,722.2 |
| Other intangible assets | 543.7 | 738.7 | 738.7 | 738.7 | 738.7 | 738.7 |
| Deferred tax assets | 439.6 | 93.8 | 554.0 | 1,502.6 | 1,502.6 | 1,502.6 |
| Other financial assets | 87.0 | 97.8 | 815.3 | 395.0 | 395.0 | 395.0 |
| 85,518.4 | 98,767.7 | 77,987.0 | 52,379.5 | 59,288.9 | 66,198.3 | |
| Current Assets | ||||||
| Inventories | 161.2 | 10.0 | 631.7 | 631.7 | 631.7 | 631.7 |
| Trade receivables | 2,141.3 | 3,641.9 | 4,544.3 | 4,544.3 | 4,544.3 | 4,544.3 |
| Other receivables | 6,130.5 | 5,528.2 | 6,305.6 | 6,305.6 | 6,305.6 | 6,305.6 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 3,663.6 | 20,368.6 | 14,853.7 | 11,357.4 | 5,781.0 | 397.4 |
| 12,096.5 | 29,548.7 | 26,335.3 | 22,839.0 | 17,262.6 | 11,879.0 | |
| Total Assets | 97,614.9 | 128,316.4 | 104,322.3 | 75,218.5 | 76,551.6 | 78,077.3 |
| EQUITY AND LIABILITIES | ||||||
| Equity | ||||||
| Share capital | 123.6 | 124.6 | 124.9 | 125.2 | 125.2 | 125.2 |
| Share premium | 20,342.8 | 22,768.6 | 23,445.6 | 23,925.2 | 23,925.2 | 23,925.2 |
| Foreign currency translation reserves | 668.8 | 553.2 | 553.8 | 473.0 | 473.0 | 473.0 |
| Equity settled employee benefits reserves | 4,424.2 | 4,529.8 | 6,869.5 | 7,567.7 | 7,567.7 | 7,567.7 |
| Retained earnings | 33,952.3 | 38,665.5 | 17,317.4 | -5,859.3 | -4,526.2 | -3,000.4 |
| 59,511.7 | 66,641.7 | 48,311.2 | 26,231.9 | 27,565.0 | 29,090.7 | |
| Non-current liabilities | ||||||
| Borrowings | 11,497.6 | 25,761.2 | 23,312.7 | 21,718.9 | 21,718.9 | 21,718.9 |
| Deferred Tax liabilities | 9,824.7 | 11,713.0 | 5,507.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Derivative financial instruments | 0.0 | 3,274.7 | 2,223.7 | 2,223.7 | 2,223.7 | 2,223.7 |
| Other long term liabilities | 695.2 | 1,099.5 | 1,500.1 | 1,500.1 | 1,500.1 | 1,500.1 |
| 22,017.5 | 41,848.4 | 32,544.3 | 25,442.7 | 25,442.7 | 25,442.7 | |
| Current liabilities | ||||||
| Trade payables | 4,610.6 | 4,705.6 | 4,485.7 | 4,485.7 | 4,485.7 | 4,485.7 |
| Borrowings | 1,091.9 | 3,051.3 | 4,112.3 | 4,189.3 | 4,189.3 | 4,189.3 |
| Current portion of other long-term liabilities | 97.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Deferred income | 4,152.3 | 5,230.7 | 6,605.8 | 6,605.8 | 6,605.8 | 6,605.8 |
| Other current liabilities | 6,133.7 | 6,838.8 | 8,263.1 | 8,263.1 | 8,263.1 | 8,263.1 |
| 16,085.6 | 19,826.3 | 23,466.8 | 23,543.9 | 23,543.9 | 23,543.9 | |
| Total liabilities | 38,103.2 | 61,674.8 | 56,011.1 | 48,986.6 | 48,986.6 | 48,986.6 |
| Total equity and liabilities | 97,614.9 | 128,316.4 | 104,322.3 | 75,218.5 | 76,551.6 | 78,077.3 |
| Net cash | ||||||
| Long term Loans | -11,497.6 | -9,735.2 | -7,286.7 | -5,692.9 | -5,692.9 | -5,692.9 |
| Short term loans | -1,091.9 | -3,051.3 | -4,112.3 | -4,189.3 | -4,189.3 | -4,189.3 |
| Convertible Bond | 0.0 | -20,000.0 | -20,000.0 | -20,000.0 | -20,000.0 | -20,000.0 |
| Cash | 3,663.6 | 20,368.6 | 14,853.7 | 11,357.4 | 5,781.0 | 397.4 |
| Net Cash | -8,926.0 | -12,417.8 | -16,545.3 | -18,524.9 | -24,101.2 | -29,484.8 |
| EBITDA | 14,965.6 | 18,179.9 | 16,439.7 | 13,777.2 | 13,297.5 | 13,518.0 |
| x1.5 | 22,448.4 | 27,269.8 | 24,659.5 | 20,665.8 | 19,946.2 | 20,277.0 |
| Net Debt to EBITDA | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Cash Flow Statement | ||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014F | 2015F | 2016F | |
| Profit for the Period | 8,672.5 | 4,713.1 | -21,348.1 | -23,176.7 | 1,333.1 | 1,525.7 |
| Operating Items not affecting cashflows | ||||||
| Net Financial Cost (-income) | 1,341.5 | -1,099.3 | 979.5 | 1,638.4 | 2,864.4 | 2,892.3 |
| Income Tax expense | -2,189.7 | -796.2 | -9,067.7 | -6,230.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | 10,355.6 | 13,622.1 | 49,241.0 | 41,545.8 | 9,100.0 | 9,100.0 |
| Impairment loss on capitalised development | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Equity settled employee stock options | 759.2 | 2,048.4 | 2,772.7 | 884.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Loss on disposal of assets | 49.4 | 147.2 | 6.8 | -5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other items | 629.6 | 1,321.8 | -164.0 | -12.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 10,945.7 | 15,243.9 | 43,768.2 | 37,821.0 | 11,964.4 | 11,992.3 | |
| Change in operating assets and liabilities | ||||||
| Change in Inventories | 183.9 | 151.1 | -621.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Change in operating assets | -112.0 | -1,930.4 | -1,639.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Change in operating liabilities | 1,660.8 | 1,736.9 | 1,359.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1,732.8 | -42.4 | -902.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Financial Income Reveived | 126.1 | 2,816.0 | 57.3 | 1.3 | 56.8 | 28.9 |
| % of opening cash | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Financial Cost Paid | -1,787.9 | -787.5 | -714.2 | -2,921.2 | -2,921.2 | -2,921.2 |
| Tax Credit received | 3,250.8 | 3,071.2 | 2,809.1 | 2,194.6 | ||
| Tax Paid | 0.0 | -244.9 | -561.0 | -262.7 | ||
| 1,589.0 | 4,854.8 | 1,591.2 | -988.0 | -2,864.4 | -2,892.3 | |
| Operating Cash Flows | 22,940.0 | 24,769.4 | 23,109.0 | 13,656.3 | 10,433.1 | 10,625.7 |
| Cash flows from investing activities | ||||||
| Purchase of property, plant and equipment | -2,483.6 | -1,319.7 | -400.1 | -400.4 | -1,000.0 | -1,000.0 |
| Purchase of other intangible assets | 0.0 | -195.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Development cost | -27,798.4 | -24,668.5 | -26,204.3 | -15,009.4 | -15,009.4 | -15,009.4 |
| Change in other financial assets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| -30,282.0 | -26,183.3 | -26,604.4 | -15,409.8 | -16,009.4 | -16,009.4 | |
| Free Cash Flows | -7,342.0 | -1,413.9 | -3,495.4 | -1,753.5 | -5,576.3 | -5,383.7 |
| Cash flows from financing activities | ||||||
| Repayments of borrowings | -6,231.6 | -8,045.6 | -2,972.0 | -2,076.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New loans raised | 12,000.0 | 19,049.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Short term borrowings | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net increase in share capital | 164.7 | 484.1 | 351.1 | 303.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5,933.1 | 11,487.5 | -2,557.9 | -1,772.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Net change in cash | -1,408.9 | 10,073.7 | -6,053.4 | -3,525.8 | -5,576.3 | -5,383.7 |
| Cash at beginning of year | 11,223.7 | 9,856.8 | 20,368.6 | 14,853.7 | 11,357.4 | 5,781.0 |
| FX | 42.0 | 438.2 | 538.4 | 29.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash at end of year | 9,856.8 | 20,368.6 | 14,853.7 | 11,357.4 | 5,781.0 | 397.4 |
| Movement in net cash | ||||||
| Net cash at start of year | -1,288.4 | -8,926.0 | -12,417.8 | -16,545.3 | -18,524.9 | -24,101.2 |
| Free Cash Flows | -7,342.0 | -1,413.9 | -3,495.4 | -1,753.5 | -5,576.3 | -5,383.7 |
| Net increase in share capital | 164.7 | 484.1 | 351.1 | 303.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cost of issuing Convertible loan | -951.0 | |||||
| Convertible interest timing difference | -1,400.0 | |||||
| Increase in Finance Leases | -568.6 | -519.3 | ||||
| Others | 150.3 | -653.6 | 955.3 | -500.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Change due to FX | -42.0 | -438.2 | -538.4 | -29.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net cash at end of year | -8,926.0 | -12,417.8 | -16,545.3 | -18,524.9 | -24,101.2 | -29,484.8 |
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